Thursday, September 6, 2007

Weekend Betting Preview: College Football Edition

Alright, last week didn’t work out so well, but the first week is a crapshoot. The second week is also pretty much a crapshoot, but I’m feeling pretty good about this play based on the results from last week as well as last year.

The game is Navy versus Rutgers on Friday night in New Jersey. These teams met last year when Rutgers shutout Navy, 34-0. Rutgers’ offense is even better than last year. They return seven starters from the team that averaged 30 ppg, including returning Heisman hopeful, Ray Rice. The line in front of Rice is also very experienced, they lost two starters, but gained Anthony Davis, the #7 ranked offensive lineman in the nation out of high school, Rutgers’ most highly touted recruit ever.

Last year, despite leading a high scoring offense, QB Mike Teel was a liability. There is no excuse for throwing 13 INTs to only 12 TDs when you have one of the best running backs in the country in your backfield. However, Teel is now a junior and should do a better job managing the game. You can’t take much from their game versus Buffalo, but Teel was awesome throwing for 328 yards and 2 TDs, most of which to (Heisman front runner) Tiquan Underwood. Though Navy’s defense is a little bit better than Buffalo’s, I expect Rutgers to carry the offensive momentum from that game with them into this contest with Navy.

Navy’s defense is absolutely awful. They return only 3 starters from a unit that gave up 20 ppg, that number isn’t bad, but is way worse when you realize that they were playing teams like Massachusetts, Temple, Tulsa, etc. Not to mention the fact that Rutgers scored 34 on them. They allowed Temple to score 19 pts last week, so, when you multiply that by how many times better Rutgers offense is than Temple … let me think … OK, Rutgers should score 200 pts.

In contrast to their defense, Navy’s offense returns seven starters, including four of their top five rushers, which is huge in an option offense. You may have stopped reading because Navy got shutout in this same spot last year, and you’d be justified, I was cautious about even playing before I looked deeper. I realized that Navy’s starting QB was injured on the second series of the game last year. 'Playing' in an option offense in high school, I know how important repetitions are for the offense’s success. The offense clearly had no rhythm the entire game, and it showed in the score. Navy only rushed for 113 yards in that game, over 200 yards less than their average of 350 rushing ypg. I was shocked to see they got shutout last year when I was looking into this game, but there is no way that will happen again, barring injury, the option attack is too difficult to stop. I actually think this veteran Navy offense has an outside chance of shocking everyone and winning this game SU, but I’m not gonna go crazy.

The Rutgers defense is actually pretty decent. Their strength is in their defensive line, which actually doesn’t concern me since the option offense forces linebackers and safeties to make stops. Most plays option off of a defensive lineman that is left free, so, they run the plays based on which choice that lineman makes … thus neutralizing them. Rutgers’ weakness is in their linebacking corps. They lost Devraun Thompson and Quintero Frierson, two of their top three tacklers, inexperience at linebacker will kill them against the option. Soooo, I’m taking (this is an awful number, you can get it at 48, but we use to keep the numbers consistent for the contest):

Rutgers/Navy Over 49.5

The Rest of the Plays:

Buzzsaw (1-4)

Rutgers/Navy Over 49.5
TCU/Texas Under 44.5
Miami (FL) +10.5 @ Oklahoma

Biglots (5-0)

Louisville -39.5 v Middle Tennessee State

Alabama -3.5 @ Vandy

Guy (3-2)

Oregon +8.5 @ Michigan
Washington +3 v. Boise St.
Auburn -6.5 v. South Florida

Sammich (2-3)

Florida -25.5 v Troy
Indiana +1 @ Western Michigan


sammich said...

Navy over Rutgers.

There are two things I will say this whole season until I am hung on a cross. Rutgers will not be good and Anthony Morelli is the worst fucking QB ever.

Buzzsaw said...

I think Navy has a really good chance to beat them ... let alone cover the 17, I thought the Over was better though. It'd have to go over for Navy to have a chance, and it should go over anyway.

BigLots said...

"playing in an option offense in high school", you use the word "playing" very loosely. Doesn't that 5-0 look pretty damn good next to my name?

Buzzsaw said...

Haha, that's a valid point Lots, I actually thought I put playing in quotes, because that comment would obviously have come, I'll fix it. I think I WAS playing in the only game you ever came to, and I think I dominated ... so fuck you.

You're Louisville pick is the #1 most popular on wagerline, btw, I'm gonna mark that as a loss right now.

Daris said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Daris said...

you are actually going against biglots? i am just going to fade him the rest of the year and make a hundred billion dollars.

my picks (just so I can be mocked when I lose):

MTSU +41 (1x)
Colts -5.5 (1x)
Colts/Saints Under 53 (1x)
OSU -3 (1x)

A lot of money moving towards Cincy at the end. I should probably just stay away from it all together, but fuck it.

MTSU should be right around this #. Their shitty performance, topped with Louisville's 73pts last week, has moved this line about 4-6pts too high IMO.

I don't really have to much to say about the Colts game, but last year the OU line was only 50(or higher) in a handful of games. I just hope they start slow.

later skaters. I enjoy the gamblin' articles.

Buzzsaw said...

I've got OSU tonight and the Saints. I like that under, but I'd think that would go along with a Saints cover since the only way it goes under is if the Saints run the ball down Indy's throats ... they can't do that from way behind, I got NO at +8 though, haha. MTSU is looking pretty great.

Daris said...

how did u get NO at +8??? sounds like you are going through that bookie jeff was telling me about at xavier who was setting his own lines.

Buzzsaw said...

He isn't really setting his own, I don't know when that was ever out, but he never updated it. There's no way I'm winning though, since I did it solely because of the line.

Buzzsaw said...

That was a positive play for me, haha

Daris said...

haha yes it was. wayne fumbles one time all of last year and gives up a fumble return for a td first game this year. funny how one damn play could cost me 50$.

Sitting real nice on Louisville. OU looks decent right now in Colts/saints. if i can scrap a colts -5.5 or an OSU -3 comeback i'll be alright.

im gettin really angry at myself for placing that OSU bet. As I mentioned, I should have "probably stayed away from it altogether."

god damn gambling problem.

Daris said...

well i just lost the OSU game.

Fair catching at the 5yd line instead of running away from the ball???

just fucking great.

Buzzsaw said...

About fucking time ... I was starting to get a little worried, Navy/gers just went over, 9min left. Fucking Navy through two INTs in the endzone, but you've gotta expect that when you bet with Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada.

Daris said...

ya, those two fucking INT's killed their cover. +16.5. They lose by 17. So sweet.

Buzzsaw said...

I got so fucked in the ass by Texas ... 27 pts in the 4th to take me over by fucking 2. I'm pissed. I lost a lot of money. At least I won the big play, haha.