Thursday, August 30, 2007

College Football Weekend Sports Betting Preview


Happy college football season everyone. Today is one of the happiest days of the sports year and, to celebrate, this occasion we are kicking off our sports gambling extravaganza. Now, to preface the following articles, we must note that sports betting is illegal for most of you, we’re against all things that are illegal, so don’t do it. But for those of you who live within the Nevada state limits or on an Indian reservation, like myself, we hope to impart information that will further your spiral into gambling addiction. Winning breeds happiness, happiness breeds addiction, addiction breeds failure, failure breeds desperation, desperation breeds prostitution, prostitution breeds STDs; so we apologize in advance for the herpes you are sure to incur from these columns.

Every Thursday, I will be posting by college football game of the week, plus an unbelievably informative write-up on said game. The games of the week reflect my opinions, not those of the rest of the group. At the bottom of each column we will each post our top five bets of the week. We will keep track of our records as the week’s progress and at the end of the year, the three losers will have to do an anal bong, Log’s Blog’s customary punishment for losers. The same will happen for the NFL column on Fridays. Enough. Let’s get down to it.

GAME OF THE WEEK

This will be a special GOW as I will be choosing the first game of the NCAA season, Miami (OH) @ Ball State. It’s a little high, but I’ll be taking the Over 53. Ball St is the key team here. They will be dedicating their newly renovated stadium, in which they installed field turf which only helps this bet. They have an extremely potent offense and a shitty defense.

On offense, Ball St. returns QB Nate Davis, now a sophomore. Last year in the preseason, Davis beat out returning senior starter Joey Lynch who, in the previous year, had just thrown for the third-most yards in school history. That record was less a product of Lynch’s skill than a reflection of 5th year coach, Brady Hoke’s offensive scheme. You may remember random ass Ball State receiver Dante Ridgeway leading the nation in receptions and yards receiving in 2004, that wasn’t because Ridgeway was good either. Davis was the 35th ranked QB in the nation last year, and he is legit. In his first six games last year he was #2 in the nation in yards per attempt at 10.2. He struggled the next three games but bounced back to throw 250 in BSU’s near upset at Michigan, he is now the proud owner of a “Leon Hall is my bitch” tattoo. He lead the MAC in passing efficiency, even beating out everyone’s favorite MAC freshman, Dan LeFevour. Overall, the offense is explosive, they look to go deep. They also have a great returning offensive line. They return 4/5 starters from last year and also two lineman that combined to start in 10 games last year. They’ve got one of the best TE’s in the MAC (Darius Hill: 42 rec, 741 yds, 10 TD) and are returning two of their top three receivers. Let’s move on, there’s no way anyone is still reading this.

Miami’s offense looks to be good this year as well. They return their QB, Mike Kokal, who was second in the MAC last year in total offense on a team that went 2-10. They lost their best receiver but return nine of their top ten lineman from last year, that's insane. I’m not as excited about them as I am Ball State (they get me really pumped) but they throw the ball all day long. For example, they return their leading rusher from last year, Andre Bratton, who had 305 yards rushing, a leading rusher that low is actually impressive. In fact, neither team had a running back in the top ten of the MAC, a passing conference, last year. Therefore, there will be plenty of clock to work with for both teams.

I would preview the defense, but I’ll save my fingers, and you’re eyes, and just tell you that they suck. Especially Miami, they gave up somewhere near a million points last year and only returns six starters. Lastly, the other major reason I like this line is because of their game last year. People will look to this game and see the final score of 20-17, and think this is an easy under with each team returning the same starters and rain not being a factor. HOWEVA, they played in 30-45 MPH winds which took away each team’s passing attack and they still scored 37pts. Now, the offenses are better, the winds won’t be insane, and each team is at full strength; these factors should add up to a relatively easy over fucking disaster.

Ball St./Miami (OH) Over 53 annnddd BOOM GOES THE DYNAMITE

The rest of the picks:

Buzzsaw

Ball St/Miami Over 53

ILL/Missou Over 55.5

UVA -3.5 @ WYU

ARI +4.5 @ BYU

ISU -3 v Kent St

Guy

ND -2 v GT

Wisc -14 v WSU

Illinois +4.5 v Missou

Akron -5 v Army

Cal -6 v Tenn

BigLots

Navy/Temple Under 51

BYU -4.5 v Ari

WVU -23 v WMU

Purdue -6.5 @ Toledo

Cal -6 v Tenn

Sammich

FIU +38.5 @ PSU

BC -6.5 v Wake

Auburn -13.5 v KSU

Cal -6 v Tenn

Minn -14 v BGSU

19 Comments:

Constant Comment said...

Good stuff buzzworthy. I also like BSU at -5.5/6 in that game.

Tonight I'm going with:
KSU +4 -105 (1x)
Piss St. +18 -109 (1x)
Utah +6.5 -105 (1x)

1x is a unit number which tells you how much I'll be betting. usually x=50$ for me, so if you see a 2x assume it means $100.

However, I am broke for a spell, so when I lose all three of these bets tonight I'll only be $75 lighter in the wallet.

(Oh, and I only bet with play money because I don't have an uncle named running elk. gambling is a sin.)

BigLots said...

Why no anal bong tag?

Buzzsaw said...

I also like BSU -5.5 ... I like LSU -18 though, Mississippi St. can't score on this defense unless LSU just doesn't care. I'm not worried about that sort of stuff since it's the first game of the year. I actually almost picked LSU as one of my 5. I actually just bet Oregon St, haha, I think they have a legit shot to be 2nd in the Pac 10. They're returning pretty much everyone except their QB. but the soph. starter is suppossed to be a stud. They return 10 of the top 11 tacklers. Utah also returns their whole offense, but weren't as good last year and they lost about half of their already awful defense, and OSU is home. That was probably confusing.

Buzzsaw said...

Problem solved Lots

Constant Comment said...

ya, that lsu game is tough. im just not sure lsu scores enough to cover with flynn replacing jamarcus and doucet becoming their go to receiver. they will most certainly get the wheels rolling, i just hope it takes them a little longer than vegas expects.

i can see it being a 24-7 type game, or its just going to be a fuckin blowout. But thats good because the loss will be quick and painless.

OSU is insanely talented. bernard (their RB) finshed with at least 1200 yds last year and double digit tds. he's gunna be tough, but sammy stroughter(sp?) the pac 10s leader in receptions last year is not going to be playing. three of his family members passed away, and he's missed every practice so far this fall. lastly, the qb situation is still up in the air. canfield and moevoa(jc transfer) are gunna be splitting duty. one gets the first half and the other gets the second. im not sure which order.

i definitely like OSU but they seem like they've still got a lot of question marks at qb, and obviously losing their #1 wideout and 2nd best return man in the league (behind DeSean) will hurt.

Their D is very very good and very experienced. It should be intersting. These are just a couple small action bets, so we shall see.

Oh, and I feel bad for OSU. They play at USC,CAL,and Oregon this year. Thats just a beat.This was also probably confusing.

Constant Comment said...

"The Bulldogs have lost seven straight to LSU by a total of 295-81, including shutouts of 51-0 and 42-0. Last year the Tigers led 21-0 after one quarter and 35-3 at halftime before winning 48-17."

ppl don't worry. I see why people like LSU at -18, so you don't need to bring it up. :-(

Buzzsaw said...

Yea, their schedule is brutal. Are you sure about the QB situation? That sounds like the dumbes thing ever. I thought Canfield had the job. And about Stroughter, what the fuck? He came back last weekend, practiced with the team and isn't fucking playing? I don't get it. Whatever, I still like OSU @ home by at only 5.5.

Guy said...

This is going to be a fun running subplot to the blog.

Buzzsaw said...

I'm having a great time watching this Ball State game on gamecast ... 3 missed field goals in the first quarter (and 30 sec into the 2nd). WOO HOO I love gambling

Constant Comment said...

i agree. i read the qb situation and the stroughter thing on the oregonian. both are completely ridiculous.

i'd link but i still dont know how to do that.

I use the contrarian theory when i bet. i stay away from the teams that are "overbought" thinking the majority of ppl are wrong. i like osu to cover -6.5 too, but its a big time public play. in these situations i either stay away from the game completely (which i definitely considered) or take the dog. it makes the games much more exciting, and i have a gambling problem so i need the action.

Buzzsaw said...

Yea, I don't like that unless it's something like Michigan/App St Saturday. Or games with national teams like USC, ND, etc. The 'public' doesn't give a shit about Oregon St./Utah. Last thing I'll say is that Utah sucks on the road, 2-4 last year, against weak as competition. The best team they played was UCLA last year in the first game, and they got their ass handed to them. UCLA wasn't good at that point either.
I doubled up on the BSU/Miami 2H btw, fuck this, haha. Over 24

Buzzsaw said...

You're clearly doing the blindly fading the public thing with MSU. But I'd say the public doesn't know how good LSU is. They think they'll suck without JaMarcus, Bowe, Davis, and especially LaRon Landry. But really, their defense is gonna be better, Flynn is a much smarter QB, and they're still loaded on offense. I'm not worried about this, MSU still cant score on these guys, they just need to score 19pts.

Buzzsaw said...

Ball State is shitting on my chest ... thank god no one can watch it. Or read this comment

Constant Comment said...

ya, ill keep my fingers crossed for a big 4th quarter in that bsu game. wow, that’s a little absurd that the O/U missed by that much.

i picked piss st, the dogs. if i was fading public i would have went with lsu. The money all went towards LSU in the game. typically i would stay away from it, but I want the action. trust me, i know the series history the last few years.

ya, utah sucked on the road W/L, but were actually (4-3) ATS. osu was (3-4) ATS at home last year. Obviously, ATS from last year doesn't mean much, but its a heck of a lot better than w/l from last year. I play ATS. I could give a shit who wins/losses. Come on, we are gambling here.

lastly, when i say public, i merely mean the betting public. the betting public does have an opinion on every game. they might not make a play on it, but still form a consensus on who they think will win/lose. for instance, in the osu/utah game 69% of the money would be played on OSU if they had to bet it.
once again, not saying its right or wrong, but the theory itself is applicable to all bets, doesn’t matter which game.

most professional gamblers aren't making money playing betting public favorites and teams giving points. they like dogs, (i,e. teams that are extremely undervalued) I dont know what I'm doing, so I trust them.

gotta go lose money. later.

Buzzsaw said...

I know what you mean about the 'public' thing, but I think there are varying degrees. The guys betting on OSU/Utah games know more than the thousands more throwing shit on schools with big names. I think fading the public in those types of games isn't smart. But I do like the strategy in bigger games, a la, Michigan this weekend, or I can understand it with this LSU game, just because the line was so suspect. Mostly, I only use that strategy in huge games with big schools, or for lines that just look out of whack to me. Basically, I'm betting Appalachian St at whatever number I can get, for example. Michigan's defense sucks, and their offense isn't good enough to carry them like West Virginia's or someone like that.

Anonymous said...

With the trades and acquisitions made going into the draft, plus the bulk of the team that is carried over from last season, and the trades and draft picks made during the draft, it sure seems like the Pats are going to be the team to beat in the AFC this season, and perhaps in all of the NFL.

Considering the Pats were almost in the Superbowl last season with a pathetic receiving corps and that they've added very talented players into said receiving corps this season, barring some nasty injury(ies), they look to be the team to take it all.I say injury(ies) because I think they could survive an injury or two to some positions, but if they lost Brady they'd probably have a hard time recovering.


I wish I could say that the Redskins did well in the draft and/or in free agency but so many holes still exist that I'm not sure they'll be significantly better than last season. I suppose on face they should be if they can keep their corners healthy. With Landry (argh, hard to type that name as a Redskin!!) back there with a healthy secondary they might be able to cheat up more and put more pressure on opposing QBs. Might.

They still have what should be a lot of talent in the receiving positions, and Campbell should be better, but they don't have the quality on either line (offense or defense) that I wish they'd have, so it could be yet another year of .500 at best, or worse.

Still, the NFC East looks to be the NFC Least again this season. None of the teams there look like they'll be that good, and none really look ready to step up and take the division.

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