Thursday, September 6, 2007

Weekend Betting Preview: NFL Edition

Alright, as you may have already guessed, we’ll be doing the same betting previews for the NFL as we are for the NCAA. Loser at the end of the year does an anal bong … let’s bully.

I’ll be taking the Rams +1 over the Panthers as my first pick in this series, let’s hope this goes better than my first NCAA pick. The Carolina defense is the key to this bet for me. They are not the same unit as they have been over the last few years. Their defensive line and linebackers are all back, with Dan Morgan and Mike Rucker’s return, but they are old. Mike Rucker is coming back from an ACL surgery which will surely affect him this season. Odds are that Dan Morgan will leave with a concussion in this game, opening up a spot for rookie Jon “Big Bease” Beason (skeet skeet). The real advantage for the Rams comes thanks to the Panther secondary. Their CBs are only average, and they have to replace both safeties. The biggest loss is of Mike Minter, the Panther career leader in tackles. The replacements at safety are Chris Harris and Deke Cooper. Harris had a few starts for the Bears the last couple seasons, but he was not Chicago’s first option. Cooper is 30 years old, and only played in one game last year (from ND, woo woo). Actually, he played for more teams in 2006 than he did games. Torry Holt, Ike Bruce, Drew Bennett, Randy McMichael, etc, will kill these guys.

Delhomme is coming off of his worst season ever, he threw 17 TDs to 11 INTs, which aren’t bad numbers, but are bad for a game managing type quarterback. He only threw for 2805 yards, or only 55 yards more than Brad Johnson … depending on how you judge shitty quarterback play. The fact that the Panthers brought David Carr in will only complicates matters since Delhomme will be looking over his shoulder all season. He has possibly the top WR in the NFL, but still sucks. It goes without saying that Steve Smith will shit on anyone, but they have no other real receiving threats, Drew Carter is their number two and Jeff King (I have no clue who that is) at tight end … that’s a joke.

Carolina’s running back situation is definitely better than their passing. They’ve got DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams splitting carries; I don’t know why they don’t just break Foster’s leg now to save everyone the trouble but when that happens, DeAngelo will be great. However, the football prospectus guys ranked Carolina as only the 24th best O-Line in run blocking (as compared to 6th for STL), so it could be a tough season for either back.

I think everyone loves the Rams offense. I’m not the biggest fan of Mark Bulger, but I absolutely love Torry Holt and Steven Jackson. No one is more consistent than those two guys. This offense, ranked sixth in the league last year, might have improved with the additions of Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael. Basically, you know what you’re getting from the Rams, a great offense and a suspect defense. One change I do like with the defense is their draft pick, Adam Carriker, who, from all accounts, has been a stud throughout the preseason. In conclusion, I like this machine of an offense indoors against a methodical offense and a defense with a suspect secondary.

St. Louis -1 over Carolina

The Rest:

St. Louis +1 v Carolina
Washington -3 v Miami (FL)

Cowboys -6 v New York
Houston -3 v Kansas City


Cleveland +4.5 v Pittsburgh
Denver -3 @ Buffalo


Denver -3 @ Buffalo
St. Louis -1 v Carolina


BigLots said...

Are you sure the Redskins aren't playing Miami (OH?

Buzzsaw said...

Yea, I checked.

Guy said...

I wish we were doing money lines.

The Browns are a lock.

HAUS said...

Eagles Packers anyone? Only -3?

Buzzsaw said...

You would bet the Eagles house ... that's why the line is -3, for you to take it. The Packers defense is really fucking good. And it's in Green Bay.

Buzzsaw said...

Orlando Pace was hurt on the first series ... I'm sticking with that as my excuse. Go Redskins (Jon Jansen was also hurt, probably out for the year, fuck everything).