Weekend Sports Betting Preview

This week's edition will not be a preview, rather, a list of our picks. If you don't like it, then you can suck my balls ... it was my birthday last night, I'm out of it. Let's bully:

Buzzsaw

UVA +4 v Maryland
Washington +13 v Oregon
Miami FL +5 v FSU
Redskins/Cardinals Over 36
Bears +5.5 v Eagles
Sammich

Miami OH -5.5 @ Temple
USC/ND Over 45
Ohio/Toldeo Under 63.5
Minnesota +9.5 @ Dallas
San Fran +9.5 @ NYG

Guy

Kentucky +6.5 v Florida
Notre Dame +17 v USC
Michigan -1 @ Illinois
Detroit -1 v Tampa Bay
Jacksonville +3 v Indianapolis

Big Lots

Nebraska/TAMU Under 60
Cal/UCLA Under 55
Auburn/LSU Over 42.5
Oakland -1
Dallas -9.5

Weekend Sports Betting Preview

That video made me want to shoot someone

Alright, nothing seems to be working. It's time for me to find a sure thing, these posts have really been getting me down lately. The only thing that can possibly get me out of this rut is ... reverse psychology.

The game? Boston College at Notre Dame. The play? Boston College -13.5 The reason? I can't lose.

I'm really taking this because I want ND to keep the game close since I'll be there, and there's no way I could actually post a correct pick. But beyond that, BC just looks like a good bet. Notre Dame beat UCLA last week 20-6; great win I was very happy, but, if you look at the numbers, the offense was as awful as it has been all year. Notre Dame had 140 total yards. UCLA had 282. ND had 12 first downs. UCLA had 20. Clausen was 17/24 for 84 yards. ND had 0 turnovers. UCLA had 7. And ND only won by 2 TDs.

I love Notre Dame's pass defense, especially Darrin Walls, and I think they will do a good job against an extremely overrated Boston College. I just don't think that the Notre Dame offense can possibly stick with BC, no matter how awesome the defense plays. Was that all convincing enough? BC IS A LOCK!!!

Boston College -13.5 v Notre Dame

Buzzsaw:
BC -13.5 v Notre Dame
Louisville/Cincy Over 65.5
Tulsa/Marshall O 71
Titans +3 v Falcons
Redskins +3 v Packers

Big Lots: TBA

Sammich:
GT +2.5 v Miami
Wisconsin +7 v PSU
Louisville +10 v Cincy
Patriots -5 v Cowboys
Browns -4.5 v Dolphins

Guy:
Oregon -19 v Washington St.
Cal -14 v Oregon St.
OSU -30.5 v Kent St
Redskins +3 v Packers
Browns -4.5 v Dolphins

2006 Bears vs. 2007 Cowboys

While watching the Cowboys pull off a miracle last night on Monday Night Football, I couldn't help but notice how eerily similar their season has been so far to the season that the Bears had last year.
Here's the Bears first six games compared to the Cowboys first five games.

2006 Bears
Week one: Green Bay: W 26-0
Week two: Detroit: W 34-7
Week three: Minnesota: W 19-16
Week four: Seattle: W 37-6
Week five: Buffalo: W 40-7
Week six: Arizona: W 24-23

2007 Cowboys
Week one: NY Giants: W 45-35
Week two: Miami: W 37-20
Week three: Chicago: W 34-10
Week four: St. Louis: W 35-7
Week five: Buffalo W 25-24

Each team had a quarterback who had been the backup the year before but was inserted into the starting lineup at the end of the year before losing their first playoff games. Each quarterback then started the next year on an absolute tear, leading their team to undefeated Septembers and earning NFC Offensive Player of the Month awards.

Each team killed everyone on their schedule except for one close battle with a divisional opponent. Both teams were considered possible flukes until they manhandled the previous year's NFC champion on Sunday Night Football.

Then once they started to get the respect of everyone around the league, the aformentioned quarterbacks turned the ball over six times on Monday Night Football against shitty teams on the road. However, each team somehow overcame these performances and were able to win by one point.

Obviously, these aren't completely identical teams. You can't compare the defenses because the Bears was so much better and you can't compare the quarterbacks because Romo is only allowed to be compared to Favre. Still, it's a little scary how similar they have been. My prediction for the rest of the Cowboys year: 13-3, just like the Bears last year. However, they will lose to the Bears 45-3 in the NFC Championship game two weeks before Chicago beats the Patriots in the Super Bowl.

Weekend Sports Betting Preview

Alright, I apologize for my lack of productivity this week, I just got completely shit on with school work. Anyway, this is gonna be short and sweet. I've loved Arizona State all year, I think they're the most underrated team in the nation … think Purdue with a defense. This week they go to Washington State, in their second road game in a row.

Washington State is coming off two awful losses, 47-14@ USC (understandable) and 48-20 @ Arizona (understandable in women's basketball). Overall, they're 2-3, also getting crushed by Wisconsin, 42-21 in the first game of the year. Their only two wins have come against San Diego State and Idaho, teams that are a combined 2-7. Washington State also has a shit load of injuries. Arizona State is 4-1 ATS this year, and Washington State has been raped by every decent team they've faced. I should probably be wondering why this line isn't closer to two TDs, but I don't care. I love ASU this year, they'll win by 10+.

Arizona State -9.5 @ Washington State

Buzzsaw:
Arizona State -9.5 v WSU
Tulsa -3 v UTEP
UVA -10 v MTSU
Houston/Miami Under 43.5
Detroit/Washington Under 46

Guy:
MSU -14.5 v Northwestern
OSU -7 v Purdue
Texas +11 v Oklahoma
San Diego +1 v Denver
Houston -5.5 v Miami

Sammich:
Northwestern +14.5 v MSU
Kansas State -3 v Kansas
LSU -7.5 v Florida
New England -16.5 v Cleveland
Indianapolis -10 v Tampa Bay

Big Lots:
Kansas/Kansas St. Over 55
Stanford +41 v USC
Michigan -29 v E. Michigan
New Orleans -3 v Carolina
Houston -5 v Miami

Notes from the Underground

Don't get too excited, this is not actually my first post in almost a month. has returned for a guest appearance, which may please you more than my return. In other good news, I have purchased the International Edition of MLB.tv which means that I will be able to watch all the playoff games live (albeit at ungodly hours) so expect something later in the week. Until then...enjoy.

With the MLB playoffs looming, and NCAA/NFL in full swing, I couldn't resist doing a quick write-up.

I didn't know if the MLB playoffs would decrease my work productivity this year, but after watching the dramatic finish to the Rockies vs. Padres one game playoff, it's safe to say I'm screwed. The game was back and forth all night, and produced some great drama . I guess Dane Cook is right; "There's only one OCTOBER!!!". I don't really feel bad for Trevor Hoffman, who blew two saves in three days, as he's had his moment in the sun for quite some time. I was actually amazed he had over 40 saves this year. He has a wicked changeup, but it's not too effective when its only 2 mph's faster than his, ah, fastball. Matt Holliday went from "outhouse to penthouse" (yea, I still say gay stuff), when he ripped a triple off the right field wall that tied the game at eight apiece. He was actually in jeopardy of losing the batting title when he stepped to the plate; having gone 1-5 up to that point,. However, his triple sealed the batting title, and the RBI crown (if I'm not mistaken.) Next came the sacrifice fly that will be talked about incessantly over the next couple days. Yes, Holliday was blocked by Barrett, and never touched home plate. Umpire Tim McClelland made the safe call, about 3 seconds too late, and the game was over. After 13 innings of exciting, lay it all on the line baseball, the game was decided by an incompetent umpire. I say, "who cares", the game was spectacular, and I was rooting for the Rockies anyway. I mean, they hadn't made the playoffs since 1995, and had to win 14 of their last 15 games to get into the post season. There's nothing left to be said, but congratulations. Larry Walker is so freakin' proud of you guys. I bet he slammed a bunch of Molson Ice (I think he's Canadian) right when Holliday thudded across the area around home plate.

Now, the whole playoff picture is set, and some focus can shift off the NFL Empire; at least until Sunday. I am looking forward to almost every series coming up. I really can't decide who I like in either AL series as the teams all seem so evenly matched. I will be rooting for the Indians and Red Sox, only because I want to see McBread and Log's friendship ended when one of their respective teams fails to win the AL Championship. As of now, my money is on Log in any fight that occurs because of the potential Cleveland/Red Sox matchup. Why you ask? Well, he TKO'd me during a slap boxing match a few months back. I don't know if McBread could do the same, so I'll just have to see.

The matchups in the AL are very interesting. I'm not sure if the Yankee's pitching staff can hold up, especially in the middle innings. Moreover, Roger Clemens guarantees a Game 3 loss for the Yanks, so I like the Indians chances. With CC and Fausto heading the Indians' rotation, the Yanks could be in for a long week.

The BoSox just named their starting rotation for their series against the Yanks. Beckett has been spectacular this year, and we all know he performs very well in the post season. If Dice-K doesn't have a tired arm, and Curt can spot his pitches well, the Red Sox can get by The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (or whatever the hell they are called.) Lachey, the terrorist threat, has pitched very shitty against the Red Sox, especially in Fenway, so it will be interesting to see how the series plays out. (Oh, and Eric Gagne needs to take off those ridiculous glasses. They were cool when he was good, but come on, its just pompous when you dress ridiculous and suck at your craft.)

I'm not going to get into a long discussion about the NL series. I don't think the Phillies/Rockies series is worth talking about (yet), and I don't know enough about the D-Backs to comment on their series with the north siders. I am not a Cubs fan, but will be pulling for them as many of my friends are. They deserve to get within a couple outs of the World Series, so I hope they advance to the NL Championship.

If im not mistaken, baseball has taken a backseat on the blog, so I hope to inject a little "fall fever" (Yep still ridiculously gay) onto the interwebs.

I have been having a very great football betting year. I am up a total of 22.75x over the past month or so, which has inflated by thin wallet and ever expanding ego. I'd be up a few units more if not for the Bungul's no-show tonight against the Pats. I don't know why I bet against the Pats. I've never lost a game I've bet with them. Randy Moss is ridiculous; shakin' his dick in front of every DB in the league. He is one of the Top 5 most talented football players of all time, and it's just sad that he stopped trying for a couple years out in Oakland. Of course, the Patriots are able to keep him under control, and it means trouble for the rest of the AFC. I don't think they will go undefeated (that's pretty tough to do people), but I do believe they will be next to impossible to beat when the playoffs roll around. The Colts are still at the top of the AFC as well, but the Patriots seem to be playing on a different level. The same cannot be said for the San Diego Chargers. They are (1-3), and seem to have no energy or enthusiasm. I predicted this when they hired Norv Turner. He is the worst coach in the NFL and is a proven loser. Marty Schottenridiculouslastname couldn't win a playoff game, but at least he consistently took his teams to the playoffs.

We can also throw the Saints into the group of underperformers this year. This shouldn't be too surprising to NFL "experts", nonetheless, you think they'd be a little better. (Contemplated Katrina something or another here, but I think its too soon.) However, the season is young, and one would be foolish to jump the gun on who will/won't suck at the end of the year. (Oh, I forgot to mention the Bears, but their not really worth talking about. What a joke!)

Some pleasant surprises include:
Detriot (Maybe Kitna isn't crazy)
Arizona (Kurt Warner's butch wife is getting more air time)
KC (Watch Hard Knocks on HBO. You gotta root for KC)
Tennessee (Vince Young says "F You Wunderlich Test)
Tampa Bay (John Gruden is a jackass)
Green Bay (only if you're a Packers fan, and I am certainly not.)
Washington (Joe Gibbs likes Nascar)
The Skid Marks (Browns)

Oh, Dallas is pretty good too. (Wade Phillips, Romo, TO, Jerry Jones...... Foursome?)

College football got pretty ridiculous this past weekend. I don't like to say "I told you so", wait yes I do, so I'll just come out and say that the Big East was overrated this year. And shockingly, Steve Slaton's fumble issues cost WV any chance of winning the game against South Florida. The PAC 10 is performing quite well, and the Oregon/Cal game was one of the best I've seen over the last couple years. I'm interested to see if Cal or USC can come out of the PAC 10 with an undefeated record; it will be tough.

My two teams, ND and Michigan, seem to be headed in opposite directions. Michigan has played well since the dreaded spread offense went away, and could be the talk of the Big 10 by the end of the year. It seems like Wisconsin is overrated, and Ohio State is beatable in the Big House, unless Tressel installs the spread offense and lays the biggest beat in the history of the Big 10. He's pretty crafty, so I'm sure he's planning on firing something ridiculous off.

Notre Dame, on the other hand, can't win a game to save their lives. They are getting pooped on by every team in the country. They showed some heart and executed well in the 2^nd half against Purdue, but it could be along time before they get a victory. They might have trouble beating Duke this year if they don't pick it up. O'Charlie looks like he's put on another 15 pounds of blubber, which only suggests he's spending extra time sulking in the Ponderosa buffet line. GROSS! Really, ND football deserves its own article, so I'll stop ranting now.

Oh, and my fantasy leagues aren't going to well. I'm glad I listened to all of those people who told me to take Stephen Jackson. Just goes to show, one should always trust his gut. I'm in last (or close to it) in both of my leagues. I will continue to get embarrassed unless I start caring and turn into the beat master. If anyone wants to make a "shady" trade and split the profits at the end of the year, I'm all ears.

Well, that is it for now everyone. Peace be with you. (I guess the write-up wasn't so quick after all.)

Weekend Sports Betting Preview

Alright, if this game is not a blowout, the Chargers are just not a good team. They’re coming back home off a loss to Green Bay, people are understandably down on them, and their coach. If they have any pride at all, they’ll kick the shit out of Kansas City.

Norv Turner is the worst head coach in the NFL, it’s unbelievable to me that he even got that job, but I worry less about this offense than I did about Chicago's against KC because, thankfully Rex Grossman isn’t involved in this game. If Norv wants to keep his job, scoring over 30 pts here would be a good start. If they can get to thirty, on LT’s back, the cover shouldn’t be a problem, since KC absolutely cannot score. The Chiefs are ranked in the bottom half of the league in rushing defense, so I expect Tomlinson to get back on track.

Well, that’s all I’ve got, this is pretty much just a situational play. I think the Chargers finally show up after facing three tough opponents to start the year, if they don’t, then they’re actually a bad team. I’m not ready to believe that, thus, I’m taking San Diego minus the points.

San Diego -11.5 v Chiefs

Buzzsaw

Auburn/Florida Under 55
Notre Dame/Purdue Over 53.5
Idaho +24.5 v Hawaii
San Diego -11.5 v Kansas City
Cleveland/Baltimore Under 40

Big Lots

Penn St. -3
Iowa St. +21.5
Georgia Tech +3
Arizona Cardinals +6
Indianapolis -9.5

Guy

Oregon -6.5 v California
South Florida +7 v West Virginia
Ohio State -23.5 @ Minnesota
Minnesota + 1 v Green Bay
Atlanta +2.5 v Houston

Sammich

WVU/USF over 56
Purdue -21.5 v ND
Syracuse -1.5 at Miami
Houston -2.5 at Atlanta
Tampa Bay +3 at Carolina

Yeah, Hines, I’m gonna have to ask you to come in on… Saturday.

This story puts a smile on my face; all the while removing that smirky ass grin from the face of Hines Ward (Sorry Logan, this article is completely necessary).

Ward owns a bar with two other business associates, the Locker Room Bar & Grille, which they opened together in December 2005. One of the associates, Nicholas Lettieri, claims that there’s money missing from the business. From PittsburghLive.com (The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review):

Lettieri leveled accusations in court documents that [Kimberly] Pitts (editors note- the third associate), her husband, Korry Pitts, and Ward failed to deposit cash receipts into the company accounts and have diverted the funds to their own personal bank accounts. Lettieri states that despite profits of more than $1 million and insurance money of $500,000, the company's bank accounts totaled less than $19,000 as of last week.

As much as the Cleveland fan in me wants to make fun of Ward for stealing, I can’t look past the history of the third associate, Kimberly Pitts and her husband Korry. Korry was sentenced to 30 years in prison in 1997 for distributing narcotics (so why is he not in jail?). The point is, assumptions lead me to believe the Pitts may have had more to do with it than Ward. But that’s not nearly as fun as making funny jokes, like these ones:

• Seriously Hines, is this necessary? First the Steelers name the field after you. And then they give you that 5 year, $27 million contract in 2005. Really? That wasn’t enough? So you had to drain out your little bar’s bank account? Greedy bastard.

• I think Hines may have messed up a mundane detail, like Michael Bolton and the decimal point thing in Office Space. What’s next? Is Alan Faneca accidentally going to burn down the building and let Hines off free like Peter Gibbons, Samir Nagonnaworkhereanymore, and Bolton? I could see Faneca being a red Swingline guy.

• Hey Hines, remember when the refs cheated for you in the Super Bowl? Well they can’t bail you out of this one! (cheap shot-- my apologies)

Oh, and Hines. I'm gonna need you to come in on... Sunday, too.

[PittsburghLive.com]

Rational Talk About the Redskins

Now that I’ve had a day to let it all settle in, I’m ready to rationally talk about the Redskins’ 2-0 start to the season. They are the best team in the NFL. They have the scariest secondary in the entire NFL, Champ Bailey and Dre Bly can talk all they want, but any rational WR would rather get locked down by those guys than knocked out by Area 51.

Let me explain to everyone why the Redskins are so good. Do you all remember ESPN’s preseason NFL rankings last year? I’m not exactly sure where the Redskins ended up, but I know they were in the top 5. That team had a ton of talent, on defense and offense, but they disappointed everyone. So, due to the 5-11 alone, people have counted them out this year … except for Redskins fans. We knew that last year was a fluke disaster for two reasons, Mark Brunell and injuries to the secondary.

Mark Brunell was painful to watch, imagine Grossman if he never threw further than 10 yards down field. It was one of the more painful offenses ever. However, when Jason Campbell came in, teams had to respect the deep pass and, in turn, the running game opened up. They averaged 151 yards rushing per game when Campbell started and have continued by averaging over 160 yards in their first two games, despite losing two of their top three linemen. Campbell is a game manager type quarterback, but keeps defenses on their toes because of his above average arm.

The defense was ranked 31st in the league last year in total defense, they didn’t get any turnovers or sacks. People thought the problem was the defensive line, which would make sense, but that wasn’t the problem. Injuried to the secondary killed the team. Shawn Springs missed nearly half of the season, and was injured even when he did play. Carlos Rodgers only missed one game, but had nagging injuries all year. Even though he could play, he wasn’t ready to be a #1 cornerback. They had no depth either, and Mike Rumph actually started for the Redskins defense. Clearly, those guys couldn’t matchup man to man with any receivers, even the Eagles, thus neutralizing Gregg Williams. His defenses are predicated on the blitz, and it’s impossible to do that without able cornerbacks. Quarterback pressure does not come from the defensive line, it comes from the linebackers and safeties, who were unable to blitz. This year, however, they’ve got Rodgers and Springs healthy and they added Fred Smoot and David Macklin … two guys who started on their previous teams. Now, with great CB depth, and the addition of monster LaRon Landry, the Skins defense can blitz and get the opposition’s QB off balance. Exhibit 1: Trent Green Exhibit 2: Donovan McNabb … I can’t wait to see Rex Grossman when the Bears come to Washington, it will be a sight to see.

So, in conclusion, this team is for real. As it stands they will be favored in all but 3 of their last 14 games. If they don’t make the playoffs, I don’t know what I’ll do … but it won’t be good. If they do make the playoffs though, absolutely anything can happen because the NFC is, shockingly, worse than last year.

Sorry about the slow day thus far, I had a rough morning. I was getting my Bagel Bites out of the oven and literally burnt the entire back of my hand trying to get them out, but I'm fighting through the pain; I've got to, I'm a blogger.

Plaxico Burress Considering Faking an Injury

Fact: The Giants are pretty bad

Fact: Eli Manning, when pressured, hangs his receivers out to dry

Fact: Sean Taylor and LaRon Landry are both capable of putting opponents into an intensive care unit, as seen last night on Monday Night Football

Now you see Plaxico’s dilemma.Why should he put his body on the line for a crappy team with a crappy quarterback against the most feared safeties in the league? A source of mine, and it is a good one (or did I dream this-- ehh, screw it), let me in on a little secret. Burress has been on the horn all morning with the best and brightest looking for advice on how to fool Tom Coughlin to make him think that he is injured, and as a result, won’t have to be on the wrong end of a blood bath at FedEx Field this coming Sunday. If I’m Plax, I get Paul Pierce, Vince Carter, Randy Moss and every Italian soccer player I can get a hold of in a conference call to figure out the best way to sit out of a game without actually being injured.

In closing, here’s a reiteration about what Landry’s high school coach said about him:

"If they go over the middle, I'll bet on him. I'll give him a dollar if he takes T.O. out," said Lou Valdin, Landry's coach at Hahnville High. "He'll shut him up because he can hit you and hurt your whole family. Interception for a touchdown or put a guy in the hospital? That's a tough decision for LaRon."

He and Taylor are probably pretty good friends. You know, like those two psycho guys that are friends with each other, get in fights once every couple of weeks, but are made up the next day.

Plaxico, go with “Ruptured spleen.” That shit is can’t miss.

Just Looking to Put Some Food on the Table

As you may have already heard, Travis Henry has a few kids here and there. Nine to be exact. And that’s a lot of mouthes to feed. I’m sure he doesn’t regret that lavish spending that bumps up his child support numbers so high. But as they say, what’s done is done. And now Travis Henry has to be good at football. No, really. He doesn’t have a choice.

As Henry’s lawyer, Shiel Edlin said:

“He doesn't have any money. The guy has significant financial issues.”

And that’s despite signing a contract in the offseason for 5 years, $22.5 million with a total of $12 million in guarantees. That twelve should go a long way, but to pick up his entire contract, Henry needs to be running with a purpose in Denver. After all, Shanahan could put a paraplegic back there and they’d run for 1,700 at this point, so he better give them a reason to keep paying him.

And guess what? He’s coming through so far. As of Monday afternoon, Henry is leading the league in rushing with 267 yards through his first two games. Considering all of the drama in the last two Broncos victories, his achievements are being lost in the translation. In week one, Jason Elam and the rest of the field goal team ran out on the field and barely got a game winner up for the win. On Sunday, Sebastian Janikowski kicked the game winner in overtime, but the referees gave Mike Shanahan his timeout that he called right before the snap. Seabass went on to hit the top of the post on his second attempt and Elam went on to work his magic again. This team could easily be 0-2. But they’re 2-0, and Henry has played a large part in that, despite getting his touchdowns ganked by the likes of Cecil Sapp and Brandon Marshall.

By the time it’s all said and done, Henry will be added to the list of backs that reaped the benefits of the Broncos system. And you may see an influx in the number of Henry jerseys being sported in Florida, North Carolina, Texas, and Georgia.

[Atlanta Journal Constitution]

Another Reason To Love Chris Cooley

Chris Cooley is probably one of the most, no, the most beloved player in the NFL. Hog's Haven does the best job introducing the few that don't know to his previous hijinks; I'll try and summarize.
The legend of Captain Chaos began with the formulation of his nickname. It all began in 2005 when a teammate bet Cooley $100 that he wouldn't introduce himself to the St. Louis captains as "Captain Chaos." He clearly took the bet, here's how it went:

"There were five captains," Cooley said. "I looked every one in the face and said: 'I'm Captain Chaos. Nice to meet you.' "

Haha, love him already? Who wouldn't? But there's more. Last year, for his fiance's 21st birthday, Cooley and his future father-in-law took 21 shots of Jim Beam in her honor. "Oh we were hurtin'," Cooley said. That wasn't the last time Cooley partied with his future in-laws. Earlier this spring:

Chris, Christy, Scott, her uncle Craig and aunt Shannon ended up at Vixens Gentlemen's Club in West Virginia for what turned out to be a family outing.

"Everyone knew who Chris was," Christy said. "The owner came out, they gave us VIP treatment and all of a sudden I look up and the strippers are dancing to 'Hail to the Redskins.' It was crazy."

That sounds like the coolest family of all time. By the way, his fiance is a former Redskins' Cheerleader. I also need to mention that Cooley is a phenomenal dresser, as you can tell, but on to the new stuff.

Now, there's a new story to add to the list. Cooley just signed a 6 year, 30 million dollar contract, and answers the question of what you do with that kind of money ... you put it in the bank. He deposited a 9 million dollar bonus check into a normal bank, using the drive thru lane. The Washington Post reports, "Cooley said the transaction did not surprise the teller. "She just took a little bit longer to come back out," he said." I think the government might burn that bank down ... I believe the FDIC only insures $250,000 of that. I think it'd be safer to use some type of safe for that cash, probably something like Scrooge McDuck's.

Weekend Betting Preview

I’m feeling really great about this week’s sports betting preview, last weekend was a bit of a beat for me as Orlando Pace went down, thus killing the Rams running game. I wasn’t happy. This week I’m very confident about a comeback, I don’t think they could put this line high enough for me to not play it; I can’t believe I’m doing it, but I’m counting on Rex Grossman.

Why This Should Win: The bet this week is on the Bears -12 at home versus the Kansas City Chiefs. Like I said, this game is all about Grossman, so let’s get the obvious out of the way. The Bears’ defense should shutout this KC team. The Chiefs only scored three points on the Texans, Larry Johnson only rushed for 43 yards, and Huard threw two interceptions. I don’t necessarily expect Huard to turn the ball over, but LJ has no shot against this team. Johnson’s performance can be attributed to KC's lack of commitment to the run and his lack of conditioning, because he only got ten carries, and Herm Edwards has already said that they will focus on pounding the ball with Johnson this week. This does not worry me at all, since the Kansas City offensive line is a shell of it’s former self. Also, the Bears’ absolutely shut down the San Diego running game, which is much better, led by Tomlinson and one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Tomlinson was held to only 25 yards on 17 carries. I am a little bit worried about the Bears ability to stop a Larry Johnson touchdown pass but every bet is a risk. A small worry on the KC team would be Tony Gonzalez since Antonio Gates went for 107 and a TD, but I think it’s pretty obvious that Gonzalez is not in the same class as Gates, and the Chicago linebackers are probably the fastest in the NFL. The loss of Mike Brown should not be too detrimental since they dealt with it last year and the Chiefs don’t exactly have game breaking receivers. So, let’s talk about Grossman.

I split Grossman’s games up into three sections, games against good defenses, bad defenses, and then there were two anomalies (see: “Why This Could Lose”). Alright, over the last year he has faced seven “good defenses" (top-15 in total defense) [MIN, MIN, MIA, GB, NWE, SD (last week)]. His combined QB Rating in those games has been an awful, 46.5. That would have been good enough to make him the worst starter in the league last year, beating out runner-up Tavaris Jackson by 16pts.HOWEVA, against shitty defenses he tore up [DET, DET, STL, NYJ, BUF, SEA, NYG, TAM, SF]. His average QB Rating in those games was 108.1, which would have been the best in the NFL last year, beating out Peyton Manning by 7pts.

His TD/INT splits against those teams are 17 TD to 1 INT against the “shitty” teams and 6 TDs to 13 INTs versus the “good” defenses. So, basically, he’s the worst quarterback in the league against good teams, and the best against bad teams. I would obviously put KC in the “shitty” grouping since they gave up 20pts to the Texans and were ranked 20^th in the league last year defensively. So, since the average score of the Bears versus the "shitty" teams was 34-14, I'm gonna go with the Bears, and I fully expect the defense to step up since it will be the Bears' first home game.

Why This WILL Lose: I think this section is probably important since there are two sides to every story. This side involves Rex Grossman being a train wreck. I left out two games from the shitty/good groupings, the Arizona game and week 17 versus Green Bay. In the Green Bay game, Grossman went 2/12, 33 yards, 3 INTs, 0 TDs. However, we’re going to throw this out entirely since the Bears’ had already clinched home field and it was New Year’s Eve, and we only know all Grossman really cares about is drinking and fucking. So, that’s out. What is really scary is that Arizona game. In which, he went 14/37, 144, 4 INTs, 0 TDs. He completely exploded, there was not excuse for this, since it was on Monday night, it was a big game. So, against KC, there is a chance he completely explodes (he is, after all, a mental midget) and is just awful this entire year. I’m not ruling that out, but this is a bounce back situation for the Bears, their first home game, and they have a horrible team coming into town. I'm gonna guess the final score will be somewhere around 31-0.

Chicago -12 v.

Kansas City

Buzzsaw

Chicago -12 v Kansas City
Buffalo +10 v Pittsburgh

Guy

Green Bay +1 v NY Giants
St. Louis -3 v San Francisco

Big Lots

Baltimore -10 v NY Jets
Green Bay +1 v NY Giants

Sammich

Dallas -3.5 at Miami
Cincy -7 at Cleveland

Weekend Betting Preview: NFL Edition

Alright, as you may have already guessed, we’ll be doing the same betting previews for the NFL as we are for the NCAA. Loser at the end of the year does an anal bong … let’s bully.

I’ll be taking the Rams +1 over the Panthers as my first pick in this series, let’s hope this goes better than my first NCAA pick. The Carolina defense is the key to this bet for me. They are not the same unit as they have been over the last few years. Their defensive line and linebackers are all back, with Dan Morgan and Mike Rucker’s return, but they are old. Mike Rucker is coming back from an ACL surgery which will surely affect him this season. Odds are that Dan Morgan will leave with a concussion in this game, opening up a spot for rookie Jon “Big Bease” Beason (skeet skeet). The real advantage for the Rams comes thanks to the Panther secondary. Their CBs are only average, and they have to replace both safeties. The biggest loss is of Mike Minter, the Panther career leader in tackles. The replacements at safety are Chris Harris and Deke Cooper. Harris had a few starts for the Bears the last couple seasons, but he was not Chicago’s first option. Cooper is 30 years old, and only played in one game last year (from ND, woo woo). Actually, he played for more teams in 2006 than he did games. Torry Holt, Ike Bruce, Drew Bennett, Randy McMichael, etc, will kill these guys.

Delhomme is coming off of his worst season ever, he threw 17 TDs to 11 INTs, which aren’t bad numbers, but are bad for a game managing type quarterback. He only threw for 2805 yards, or only 55 yards more than Brad Johnson … depending on how you judge shitty quarterback play. The fact that the Panthers brought David Carr in will only complicates matters since Delhomme will be looking over his shoulder all season. He has possibly the top WR in the NFL, but still sucks. It goes without saying that Steve Smith will shit on anyone, but they have no other real receiving threats, Drew Carter is their number two and Jeff King (I have no clue who that is) at tight end … that’s a joke.

Carolina’s running back situation is definitely better than their passing. They’ve got DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams splitting carries; I don’t know why they don’t just break Foster’s leg now to save everyone the trouble but when that happens, DeAngelo will be great. However, the football prospectus guys ranked Carolina as only the 24^th best O-Line in run blocking (as compared to 6^th for STL), so it could be a tough season for either back.

I think everyone loves the Rams offense. I’m not the biggest fan of Mark Bulger, but I absolutely love Torry Holt and Steven Jackson. No one is more consistent than those two guys. This offense, ranked sixth in the league last year, might have improved with the additions of Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael. Basically, you know what you’re getting from the Rams, a great offense and a suspect defense. One change I do like with the defense is their draft pick, Adam Carriker, who, from all accounts, has been a stud throughout the preseason. In conclusion, I like this machine of an offense indoors against a methodical offense and a defense with a suspect secondary.

St. Louis -1 over Carolina

The Rest:

Buzzsaw:
St. Louis +1 v Carolina
Washington -3 v Miami (FL)

Biglots:
Cowboys -6 v New York
Houston -3 v Kansas City

Guy:
Cleveland +4.5 v Pittsburgh
Denver -3 @ Buffalo

Sammich:

Denver -3 @ Buffalo
St. Louis -1 v Carolina

B-Easy Thinks Highly of Himself

After visiting the Official Website of Braylon Edwards, I can’t get enough of watching the intro to the site. Make sure you have your sound on-- the “B-Easy” tune by DJ Joey Fingaz is off the hook (or something?).

Braylon has proclaimed, “I’m back.” I’m not exactly sure where he went, or if he had ever even arrived to Cleveland for that matter. All I remember is his holdout his rookie year, his subsequent non-stop talking to the media and yelling at Charlie Frye his second season, and his abysmal performance to go right along with it.

The best part? He actually had to make up a situation where he did something good:

Pittsburgh 24, Cleveland 20. It’s the fourth quarter. 4^th and 25. Ball on the Cleveland 32 yard line. The play clock is ticking, 4 seconds, 3, 2…

And Braylon streaks down the field for a 68 yard touchdown, all the while throwing a Steeler corner to the ground!

Talk about the most generic “hero that saves the game” scenario possible. It’s a situation in which a young selfish and immature high school wide receiver would dream about.

But then again, that’s pretty much what Braylon is.

[BraylonEdwards.com]

Thanks to a retired blogger for the tip.

NFC East Preview

Full disclosure, I love the Eagles, always have and I always will. This column will be a chance for me to be honest with myself, a type of therapy. I know all of the football ‘experts’ are telling me it’s the Eagles division to lose, but I just don’t see it. I don’t buy the Cowboys hype either; they’ve got a QB from Eastern Illinois University, what the hell is that? Oh. Well, he only had six good games, made the pro bowl because of them, started dating a pop star, and promptly went to shit. The Giants don’t even bear mentioning in NFC East Championship talk… here’s how I think things will pan out:

1) Washington Redskins, Projected Record: (11-5)

I think it’s completely ridiculous to assume the Redskins offense won’t be dramatically improved in this, the second year, of Al Saunders’ offense. History backs up this assertion. When he came into Kansas City in 2001, he inherited an offense that was ranked 31^st in total offense the season before. In 2001, they immediately jumped to the top five. In 2002, they moved up to the 4^th spot and in his last three seasons, the Chiefs led the league in total offense. Possibly more telling is the fact that in 2006, his first year in Washington, the Chiefs dropped from first in total offense back down to 31^st.

Jason Campbell is an absolute machine; he’s got a huge arm, pocket presence, and a mustache. His teammates have unanimously agreed that he’s been the hardest working player this off-season. The knee injury scare was awful, but if last night is a good indication (5/5, 54, 1TD) then he’s back at 100%. The receivers are admittedly weak, but so were Kansas City’s. Chris Cooley should make the leap into the NFL’s elite at tight end and Santana Moss is better than anything KC ever had. At running back, I personally believe Portis will be healthy, he has acknowledged the fact that this year may be his last in Washington if he does not improve. Ladell Betts started the last six games of the year, averaging 156.5 total yards per game, second to only Tomlinson in that span, but he is not a Larry Johnson-type back. That enormous improvement in the running game should be attributed to the Redskins offensive line having finally adjusted to Saunders’ zone blocking scheme which worked so well in KC and also the emergence of Jason Campbell, which added a deep threat to the passing game. Defenses knew Brunell couldn’t throw further than ten yards, so they crowded the box. Portis should be as good as ever, if healthy, and if there is a problem Betts taking over will be an easy transition.

Gregg Williams’ reputation also precedes him. He has had top defenses in each of his stops, Houston Oilers/ Tennessee Titans and with the Buffalo Bills. He’s already made the Redskins an elite defense, but they have faltered recently. Going into the draft the football ‘experts’ believed the Redskins had to go after a defensive lineman, in order to get more pressure on the quarterback. People were shocked when they went with LaRon Landry, but the pick and their other off-season moves, make perfect sense.

The problem last year was not the defensive line, Williams’ defense is predicated on the blitz. It’s not possible to blitz, and put your defensive backs on an island, when you don’t have healthy cornerbacks. The Redskins suffered injuries to their top two cornerbacks, Shawn Springs and Carlos Rodgers. In 2004, the Redskins had Shawn Springs (made pro bowl) and Fred Smoot healthy and the team was ranked third in total defense. In 2005, Springs continued to excel, but Fred Smoot left and was replaced by Walt Harris and rookie Carlos Rodgers, they weren’t as good as Smoot, but were serviceable and the defense ended the season ranked ninth in the league. Following the injuries to Springs and Rodgers last year, the Redskins have made themselves into one of the deeper secondaries in the NFL this off-season.

They drafted Landry (who Craig James called one of the best safeties in college football history last night) who, paired with Sean Taylor, will give the Redskins the most intimidating safety combination in the league, and picked up David Macklin, who gave Washington a hometown discount after starting for seven seasons for Indianapolis and Arizona (it’s DMack’s World, we’re just living in it). [They also picked up tackling machine London Fletcher-Baker (I hate hyphens) FROM… John Carroll University, to anchor the linebacking corps] The improvement of the secondary will allow for more of Williams’ signature blitzing. The fear of the LaRon Landry safety blitz alone will keep opposing quarterbacks up at night, just ask Kerry Collins. As unsilent majority said at KSK, “Landry just finished off what Jim Beam started on Kerry's liver.” Ok, one more quote about LaRon, “If they go over the middle, I'll bet on him. I'll give him a dollar if he takes T.O. out,” said Lou Valdin, Landry's coach at Hahnville High. “He'll shut him up because he can hit you and hurt your whole family. Interception for a touchdown or put a guy in the hospital? That's a tough decision for LaRon.” Even though I’m a diehard Eagles fan, I have an unhealthy obsession with him.

Lastly, with seemingly no one choosing the Redskins to be anything better than 3^rd of 4^th in the division, a new voice emerged. FootballOutsiders.com, makers of the football prospectus has called for the Redskins to make the playoffs. They are stat freaks and I cannot even begin to understand their mathematical systems but they love the Skins, especially Jason Campbell who they’ve been hyping up since last season.

I’m going to say that the Redskins not only hit their Over [7.5 wins], but they host a playoff game. Why? A lot of things. Their third-down performance on defense is going to improve, and they’ve upgraded their weaknesses with the additions of LaRon Landry, Fred Smoot (who is at least better than Mike Rumph, for sure) and London Fletcher-Baker, plus the return to health of Cornelius Griffin. On offense, while Brandon Lloyd will continue to be Brandon Lloyd, the Redskins will have had a full year to digest the Al Saunders offensive playbook, with Lewin Career Forecast favorite Jason Campbell behind center from training camp on. While we’re not sanguine on Clinton Portis’ chances of staying healthy for a full year, he’ll be able to split time with Ladell Betts. I may be a fool, but I think that I’m buying low here on an underrated team.

There you have it, your NFC, and dare I see conference champions. No, I’m going to go one step further, your Super Bowl Champion, Washington Redskins. (shedding a tear for writing that, god I love the Eagles)

2) Philadelphia Eagles, Projected Record: (8-8)

I can’t rationally talk about them, I’ll just sound like a homer, and there is nothing worse than reading something like that. My main concern though is not on the field, but off. I expect a minimum of ten suspensions due to the NFL’s substance abuse policy; the Eagles’ organization has been letting the inmates run the asylum. The man responsible for policing the performance enhancing drug problem, Andy Reid, is clearly not qualified. If he didn’t suspect his own son; huddled in a corner, weighing only 100lbs, pale, shaking, covered in feces, of drug use, how could he possibly be expected to recognize the expanding head or bacne of an NFL player? The Eagles are screwed.

3) New York Giants, Projected Record: (4-12)

Is there a funnier backfield tandem than Eli Manning and Brandon Jacobs? Eli Manning is a tutu wearing, cock gobbling quarterback, well known for crumbling under pressure. Brandon Jacobs is a huge, scary black man; there is no doubt that his dick has more in common with a Pringles can than my own. It’s as if they met in jail, Jacobs busted for cruelty to animals (strangling a bear) and Eli caught masturbating in public. They met, Jacobs made Manning his bitch, and they’ve been together ever since, making it all the way to the NFL.

4) Dallas Cowboys, Projected Record: (0-16)

I had a whole paragraph written about how much Tony Romo sucks, but this guy puts into words what everyone else is thinking. No matter what Romo does to try and hide it, Romo sucks and has a small penis. From commenter, “tony romo sucks balls mother fucker”:

romo is a sucky lover and he sucks balls at quarterback also he has a really small penis and has really sucky sperm and he is a fag!~!!!!!!!! his sperm sucks!!!!!his sperm sucks!!!!!his sperm sucks!!!!!his sperm sucks!!!!!his sperm sucks!!!!!his sperm sucks!!!!!his sperm sucks!!!!!his sperm sucks!!!!!his sperm sucks!!!!!

So there you have it, I hope I gave you an informative peek into the NFC East.

NBC Knows Its Audience

Allow me to describe a typical Sunday night from last football season to you. I had just watched my Browns lose. I was probably losing in my fantasy league. But I was still fired up for some Sunday night football. Even if “Sunday Night Football” is defined as Bills-Seahawks.

Then, NBC decided it was the play to bring Pink, the artist (a term used loosely) on to sing the pregame song. Talk about a buzzkill. It’s a remake of a Joan Jett song, retitled “Waiting All Day for Sunday Night.” Here’s what NFL on NBC producer Fred Gaudelli had to say about picking Pink:

A football fan knows the anticipation of waiting all day for the big game. When you hear this song on Sunday nights you'll know the big game is about to kick off. ... We chose Pink as the signature voice because she is a tremendous talent with a crossover appeal that makes her relevant to all segments of our audience.

Good thinking Fred.

After that debacle, NBC has wised up and decided to use some common sense. The new opening singer for the program will be Faith Hill, who will be performing the same song that Pink used to. Just better. And hotter.

That’s right. So let’s review.

NBC’s target audience: football fans, mostly males, sometimes “hicks”

NBC's first try: an emo pink haired freak that is not at all attractive

NBC’s second try: a very attractive (read: hot) blonde country singer

Thank you for wising up, NBC.

I’ll be waiting for Sunday night.

[USA Today]
[Zap2it.com]

My Monthly Post

The NFL regular season is nearly upon us and soon we will be able to discuss actual games rather than such topics as: Who sucks more? Eli Manning or Rex Grossman? Or whether Michael Vick has decided to either kick someone's ass or make someone his bitch on his first day in jail. Personally, I'm just looking forward to everyone finally getting off their knees and allowing Peyton Manning's dick to breathe.

Due to the unbalanced schedule a team's regular season slate can ruin a borderline team's season before it even starts. For example, last year a shit Browns team played a brutal schedule and had no chance while a shit Packers team won 8 games because they played no one. CBS Sportsline released this years strength of schedule for this season based on the team's record from last year. The Bills will play the toughest schedule on paper with 12 games against teams that finished .500 or better while the Cardinals will play the worst schedule. Interestingly enough, every team in the AFC has a strength of schedule of over .500 while only the Lions are over .500 in the NFC.

So what does this all mean? I have no idea because the NFL is about as predictable as one of Buzzsaw's posts. So do what you like with
this information. I'm pretty confident that it will only be used as a way for everyone to talk shit about the Bears. For that reason
I'll just give my rebuttal now: Fuck you, they went to the Super Bowl.

My Day with Kelli Croyle

Sometimes, when I see a pretty girl I start to daydream. I don’t dream of f’ing her in the A or deucing on her chest, I dream of a nice little Saturday. I wake up and make a nice breakfast (I always make the breakfast, she takes care of lunch and dinner), then we go on a pleasant walk alone, maybe go for an errand run to Lowe’s to grab a few supplies for the day, reupholster a couch, who knows? It could be anything. Sometimes it’s nice to stop and just smell the roses once and a while because if you only fuck them all, you’re going to have an ugly garden. Well, lately, the object of my affection has been Kelli Croyle, Brodie Croyle’s wife and the star of HBO’s Hard Knocks.

Good morning babe, you’re looking great today, I love that white shirt. Where’d you get it? Talbots? I love that place, maybe we should take a stop by there today. They have men’s clothes right? I could really go for a new pair of khakis ... What are you doing in there hun? Laundry? I’ll be right in.

I can’t believe I ever used to whine about doing laundry when I was growing up, this is fun … you make everything fun. ... Oh honey, you don't have to fold my clothes, how about I fold and you put away... I love you so much.

How cute are we today? Matching shirts and everything, did you plan that? Maybe it’s time for me to start picking my own clothes, if you’re gonna be playing tricks on me. Oh, I’m just kidding, I love when we match. Remember our senior pictures back in high school? We were matching, remember? They needed five takes to get a good one because we wouldn’t stop tickling each other. That was a great day.

Alright babe, let’s hurry up and get to the store, I want to make sure we’re back for Wheel of Fortune. I love you so much; this is gonna be a great trip (kiss). [end scene]

I think everyone can agree that there is much more to relationships then just sexual intercourse, in fact 99.9% of the interaction between those in relationships is going to be non-physical; folding laundry, talking on the phone, singing each other the sleep, etc. I look for long-term gain in my fantasies, for the best mate to fill that 99.9%, and I'm really starting to think that girl might be Kelli Croyle.

-Big Thanks to Arrowhead Addict for finding these pictures

NFC South Preview: Doggies, Hurricanes, and the like

Each of the contributors is going to be previewing one division and the remaining divisions will be assigned to several guest writers. We're going to try to do about one or two per week until the start of the season.

Ever since the Texans joined the league and there was realignment, I always looked at this division as the awkward division. The Panthers are still a pretty new team in my eyes, thus no rivalries have been formed. And the Buccaneers were just kind of pried away from the Central, which killed Favre’s “rivalry” (if you can call it that) with Warren Sapp and the Buccaneers. It also forced upon the average football fan another hopeful rivalry of Vick vs. Tampa’s defense. Yawn. The only constant here is the Falcons and Saints being in the same division. Not much history here, but recently many storylines have surfaced among these four teams.

Glass Half Full Storylines that may or may not interest you

1. Bruce Gradkowski to Maurice Stovall was the most electrifying play in sports

A friend of the blog’s went to the same high school as Bruce (Seton La Salle in Pittsburgh). She (yes, she) informed me that when the Buccaneers were playing the Steelers in Pittsburgh, Gradkowski visited his old school to the tune of a rally. Oh yeah, and t-shirts that said “Seton La Salle Grad(kowski).” Those clever Pittsburghers. The glass half full news? Gradkowski won’t be starting anymore. Phew. Jeff Garcia was acquired in the offseason and will take the helm (unless Chris Simms steals the job-- you do have to feel bad for him), which should be an improvement despite the horrendous offensive line of the Bucs. And Michael Clayton can’t have another bad season. Can he?

2. Reggie Bush, DeAngelo Williams, and Steve Smith have talent

And the best part for the Reginald? He has a very good offensive line, quarterback, and receivers around him to help him out. Bush’s talents can’t really be put into words-- he just gives you a scare every single time he touches the ball. As far as Williams and Smith go, that offense should be scary. The Panthers didn’t have much of a running attack last year with their subpar offensive line and DeShaun Foster limping around. I feel like he got injured a little bit too late in the season for DeAngelo to make his rightful impact. This year, DeAngelo should be getting more carries and I couldn’t be more excited. The little shit has some moves and I think he will ultimately give the Panthers more of a ground threat, lightening the focus on Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson Dwayne Jarrett. I would be picking the Panthers to go far this season because of their very above average defense (especially the line-- Kris Jenkins, Julius Peppers, Mike Rucker), but Jake Delhomme just doesn’t do it for me. Sorry. If David Carr takes over his job, then we’ll start talking.

3. The Saints rid themselves of Joe Horn

Good for them. And the kicker? They get to dick all over him two games a year now that he is with the Falcons. Suckers.

Glass Half Empty Storylines

1. No one feels bad for you anymore, New Orleans

Sorry, guys. This year you will have to actually win games by using such attributes like ability and talent. Katrina has since passed and the Saints’ defense is going to have to start contributing to football games since other teams will be trying. That sucks for Saints fans. At least Reggie Bush and Brees are, you know, pretty good.

2. Joey Harrington, it’s your show

ESPN already beat me to the “Cousin Padraig won The Open, so now its Joey’s turn to take advantage of the luck of the Irish” angle, so it looks like I’ll have to go another way. And I’m not looking to tie in his other cousin, Dan (poker professional-- a pretty successful family, that bunch). Joey Harrington really isn’t all that bad of a quarterback, as he proved in Miami with a few good outings until he lost running back Ronnie Brown and his helpfulness to an injury. He was drafted #3 overall in 2002 by the Detroit Lions, which was clearly a disaster waiting to happen. The Lions were awful in the three years with him at quarterback, but he did steadily improve for the most part. Anyway, things could be worse. It should be an exciting interesting year to be a Falcons fan

The Train Wrecks (Completely Empty Glass) Storylines

1. The Buccaneers Defensive Ends Get Senior Citizen Perks

Three of their ends add up to 32 years in the league (Greg Spires, Simeon Rice, and Kevin Carter). Gaines Adams was their first draft pick, but he is probably going to need a year to adjust. As for Chris Hovan and Ryan Sims and the interior line? They’re pretty bad.

2. Mike Vick will be Getting Friendly with Jail Security Guards

I won’t even waste your time with errant jokes.

3. Cadillac Jokes Still Aren’t Funny

Like many others, I am sick of the “Cadillac just needs a tune up” or “Cadillac needs to go in the garage for a week to rest” jokes. Can we all agree that he just sucks?

Predictions

Like I said above, this division is just awkward. The only serious threats of doing anything are the Saints and Panthers.

As for the Saints, their offensive line and weapons are scary as hell. The only question mark is their defense-- I just can’t take them seriously. Their line and secondary aren’t awful, but their linebackers are a joke. When you’ve got guys named Scott Shanle, Scott Chicken Fujitas (I bet he’s never heard that one before), and Brian Simmons starting, its time to start re-evaluating your play.

I personally think the Panthers are scarier than the Saints, just because their defense is frightening. If Delhomme gets it together or Carr takes over and gets something going, this is going to be a tough team to beat. I feel like I’ve loved the Panthers in the preseason for the past 4 years. Since I’m stubborn, I’ll take them to win the division at 11-5. Saints 10-6. The rest-- who cares.

AFC North Preview

Each of the contributors is going to be previewing one division and the remaining divisions will be assigned to several guest writers. We're going to try to do one or two a week until the start of the season. Here's the first one.

1. Ravens

I’m picking the Ravens to go 11-5, but make no mistake; this is a better team than the one that went 13-3 last year. They added Willis McGahee who will add much more diversity to their offense attack than they’ve had in the past. Not only is he more of a cut back runner with big play potential but he will also improve their passing game. With better hands than Jamal Lewis they will be able to run more screens and flares. Also, unlike Lewis, McGahee is comfortable in single back sets, meaning they will be able to use three WRs more often and spread the field. McNair just needs to stay healthy for the entire season again.

On defense the Ravens should still be pretty dominating. I mean they do have God’s Linebacker on their team. The only real question mark is how they will replace DE/LB Adalius Thomas who cashed in with the Patriots. More than likely they will turn to former backup Jarret Johnson, with Antwan Barnes and Dan Cody also seeing some time on third down.

The Ravens do have a pretty tough schedule, at one point playing at San Diego, then coming home to play New England and Indianapolis. But I expect them to match up well against division foes, going 5-1 and taking the division.

2. Steelers

I’m very excited about the start of the Mike Tomlin era. I loved Cowher, but he just didn’t seem motivated last year. I think Tomlin will bring a breath of fresh air while retaining a no-nonsense attitude. Here’s what he said when he was asked why he was wearing long sleeves in the ninety degree heat at training camp: “Its part of the mental warfare. I don’t want guys coming up to me telling me how hot it is because they know I don’t care. I hope it gets hotter.” Not quite the same as Mangini playing Mozart during practice.

The only significant loss the Steelers suffered was Joey Porter, who, in my opinion had become very one dimensional. They’ll look to replace him with draft picks Lawrence Timmons and Lamar Woodley. Timmons didn’t get off to a great start in training camp and word is he’s already slipped on the depth chart, but Woodley has been very impressive. They didn’t really do much to improve their secondary which was sometimes prone to big plays, but Polamalu should be completely healthy so that should help.

While the Steelers don’t have any significant new personnel on offense they do have a new offensive coordinator, former wide receivers coach Bruce Arians. Hopefully he will not only involve the receivers more (especially Santonio Holmes, who seems poised for a breakout year), but get the ball to TE Heath Miller who has some of the best hands in the league and was woefully underutilized last season. The question that everyone is asking is whether Roethlisberger’s struggles last year were the result of his off the field misfortunes or just evidence that he is nothing more than a good game manager who is not capable of throwing more than 25 passes a game effectively. Only time will answer that one.

I have them going 9-7 and 3-3 in the division.

3. Browns

Most people expect the Browns to be terrible. I disagree for several reasons. Regardless of who starts at QB (hint: not Brady) they will be much improved because of the upgrade in the offensive line. First-round pick Joe Thomas is signed and hardly missed any time in training camp. They signed the best available offensive lineman Eric Steinbach (from Iowa) and also should have LeCharles Bentley, who was the best available lineman from last year’s free agent class, returning. These three very large men should also help new running back Jamal Lewis . He may not be the same RB who rushed for 2,000 yards in ’03 but he’s definitely an upgrade over Reuben Droughns. His coke business might suffer in Cleveland though.

I know they haven’t really improved that much on defense but I think the D will gain confidence simply because they won’t be forced to stay on the field for 45 minutes a game.

I’m predicting that Browns go 9-7. Wait, before you ask me if I’m smoking crack (someone already did), look at their schedule. They play the Raiders, Dolphins, Texans, Bills, Cardinals and 49ers. If they can win one division game and surprise say, the Jets and Seahawks, that would put them right there. Ok, so maybe 8-8 is more likely, but it’s more fun to put them ahead of the Bengals. Anyway, they still go 1-5 in the division (their lone with coming in Week 1 against Pittsburgh).

4. Bengals

I don’t understand why everyone is assuming the Bengals are a lock to finish second in the division this year. Yes their offense is good. It was good last year too and it didn’t get them into the playoffs. They also lost some key players. Chris Henry is suspended for half the season and with all that time on his hands a marijuana or gun charge seems pretty likely. He may be suspended longer, who knows? Eric Steinbach and Kelley Washington are also gone and they only have basically one tight end.

The bottom line is that without a serviceable defense it doesn’t matter how good the offense is. The Colts already proved that. They did add Leon Hall at CB but they are really going to miss Odell Thurman and David Pollack. I’ve watched Chinedum Ndukwe at Notre Dame; he’s not that good. Leon Hall on the other hand is a pretty good pick and should add to the already solid secondary.

The Bengals will finish 8-8 this year and 3-3 in the division.