The Contest

Due to the fact that Buzzsaw was at the Virginia Tech debacle last night (Boston College is trash), I'm filling in for him and posting this week's picks. It's time to update the standings first though.

Standings
BigLots 26-14
Guy 22-18
Sammich 16-23-1
Buzzsaw 13-23-4


To sum it up, I'm awesome and Buzzsaw will be taking an entire beer up the butt shortly.

Onto the picks:

BigLots:
West Virgina/Rutgers Under 57
Houston/UTEP Over 74
South Florida -4.5 @ UCONN
Tampa Bay -3.5 vs. Jacksonville
NY Giants -9.5 @ Miami

Buzzsaw:
Iowa +3 v MSU
Ohio St -3.5 v Penn State
Minnesota +23 v Michigan
Redskins +16.5 v Patriots
Dolphins +9.5 v Giants
**BONUS** Bye pk v Notre Dame

Guy:
UConn +4.5 @ USF
Washington St +5.5 v UCLA
Oregon -3 v USC
Miami +9.5 v NYG in London
Carolina +6.5 v Indianapolis

Sammich:
Vanderbilt -13.5 v Miami (OH)
Ohio State -3.5 @ Penn State
Michigan -23 v Minnesota
New York Giants -9.5 v Miami in London
St Louis -3 v Cleveland

The long awaited update to The Contest

I'm back. I never really went anywhere I guess but now I've decided to finally get off of my ass and update the contest. I got a little bored with it because I've been dominating so thoroughly. You know that feeling when you're just a little too good at something? It gets tiresome. When I'm not challenged I lose interest. It's just human nature.

Okay, I'm glad I got that out of my system. Truthfully, I only wrote that last paragraph to piss off Buzzsaw. It just so happens that pissing off Buzzsaw is one of the few things in the world that I'm better at than this contest. Actually, as you can see Guy is pretty close to me and could even pass me this weekend if I slip up. Even though it's early, it looks like Buzzsaw and Sammich are going to be battling it out to avoid funneling a beer up their ass.

Standings

BigLots 18-7

Guy 14-11

Sammich 9-15-1

Buzzsaw 6-16-3

In completely unrelated news, the Diamondbacks and the Cubs are just now starting their series. I think it's well documented where my allegiance stands in this match-up. While in the middle of writing this award winning article I happened to catch the starting lineup of the Diamondbacks:

Chris Young
Stephen Drew
Eric Byrnes
Tony Clark
Mark Reynolds
Jeff Salazar
Chris Snyder
Augie Ojeda
Brandon Webb

Jesus Christ that is awful. That team had the best record in the National League, are you kidding me? I knew the D'backs weren't exactly a dominant team but I had no idea it was this bad. I'm relying on Augie Ojeda and Jeff Salazar to deliver me from my own personal hell which would be the Cubs advancing in the playoffs? This is just awful news. I'm extremely bitter right now. I'm just gonna console myself by staring at The Contest standings for a couple minutes.

Weekend Sports Betting Preview

Alright, the Weekend Betting Preview will now become a one day affair, two was just too many. Last week was a fucking joke, I won 2/3rds of my plays and I bet like 40 games (that's a little excessive), but somehow I went 1-4 on this fucking contest. Annoying. Time to turn it around, which is weird to say because I'm actually due to lose after last weekend ... but whatever. Here's my biggest play this weekend.

Toledo +3.5 v. Iowa State

There are a lot of reasons to bet on games, in any sport, and most of them are involved here. I really don’t have to go into each team’s offensive and defensive units, this isn’t a matchup thing at all. Here’s why I like this:

It’s a huge letdown game for Iowa State. They just beat their most bitter rival, Iowa at home. They are in no way better than Iowa, it was just a rivalry game, which can obviously go either way. That made their season. I might be worried if they were undefeated or something, with conference championship aspirations, but this team is 1-2, with losses coming to Northern Iowa and Kent State at home already this year. They won’t care about this game, they won their championship last weekend.

This is a sandwich game for Iowa State. They had their biggest game of the year last weekend and next weekend they will be traveling to Nebraska. It would be crazy to think this team was focused on Toledo, but, shockingly, they’re laying points. I know Toledo is bad, but so is Iowa State.

This is also a revenge game for Toledo as they lost a 3OT game at Iowa State to start the year last year. Toledo has also lost three straight games, all to high powered offenses, Purdue, Central Michigan, and Kansas; playing Iowa State will be a nice break from those type of offenses. I’ll end with a nice stat about Toledo’s home field advantage, Toledo is 20-2 in their first home game back off a two game road trip since 1986, haha … I absolutely hate trends, but that’s pretty impressive. One more, Toledo is 20-9 in their last 29 home games. They love going home.

Toledo +3.5 v Iowa State

Buzzsaw

Toledo +3.5 v Iowa State
Oregon State/Arizona State Under 52
Penn State/Michigan Under 46.5
Colts -6 @ Texans
Browns/Raiders Under 40

Biglots

Tulsa +23 v Oklahoma
Louisville/Syracuse Over 61.5
Michigan +3 v PSU
Bengals/Seahawks Over 49.5
Lions/Eagles Over 43.5

Guy

Illinois -2.5 @ Indiana
Michigan +3 v Penn State
Oregon -17 @ Stanford
Broncos -3 v Jaguars
Cowboys +3 @ Bears

Sammich

East Carolina/West Virginia Over 59
Georgia Tech -3.5 @ Virginia
Penn State/Michigan Over 46.5
Colts -6 @ Texans
Redskins -3 v Giants

Weekend Betting Preview

I’m feeling really great about this week’s sports betting preview, last weekend was a bit of a beat for me as Orlando Pace went down, thus killing the Rams running game. I wasn’t happy. This week I’m very confident about a comeback, I don’t think they could put this line high enough for me to not play it; I can’t believe I’m doing it, but I’m counting on Rex Grossman.

Why This Should Win: The bet this week is on the Bears -12 at home versus the Kansas City Chiefs. Like I said, this game is all about Grossman, so let’s get the obvious out of the way. The Bears’ defense should shutout this KC team. The Chiefs only scored three points on the Texans, Larry Johnson only rushed for 43 yards, and Huard threw two interceptions. I don’t necessarily expect Huard to turn the ball over, but LJ has no shot against this team. Johnson’s performance can be attributed to KC's lack of commitment to the run and his lack of conditioning, because he only got ten carries, and Herm Edwards has already said that they will focus on pounding the ball with Johnson this week. This does not worry me at all, since the Kansas City offensive line is a shell of it’s former self. Also, the Bears’ absolutely shut down the San Diego running game, which is much better, led by Tomlinson and one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Tomlinson was held to only 25 yards on 17 carries. I am a little bit worried about the Bears ability to stop a Larry Johnson touchdown pass but every bet is a risk. A small worry on the KC team would be Tony Gonzalez since Antonio Gates went for 107 and a TD, but I think it’s pretty obvious that Gonzalez is not in the same class as Gates, and the Chicago linebackers are probably the fastest in the NFL. The loss of Mike Brown should not be too detrimental since they dealt with it last year and the Chiefs don’t exactly have game breaking receivers. So, let’s talk about Grossman.

I split Grossman’s games up into three sections, games against good defenses, bad defenses, and then there were two anomalies (see: “Why This Could Lose”). Alright, over the last year he has faced seven “good defenses" (top-15 in total defense) [MIN, MIN, MIA, GB, NWE, SD (last week)]. His combined QB Rating in those games has been an awful, 46.5. That would have been good enough to make him the worst starter in the league last year, beating out runner-up Tavaris Jackson by 16pts.HOWEVA, against shitty defenses he tore up [DET, DET, STL, NYJ, BUF, SEA, NYG, TAM, SF]. His average QB Rating in those games was 108.1, which would have been the best in the NFL last year, beating out Peyton Manning by 7pts.

His TD/INT splits against those teams are 17 TD to 1 INT against the “shitty” teams and 6 TDs to 13 INTs versus the “good” defenses. So, basically, he’s the worst quarterback in the league against good teams, and the best against bad teams. I would obviously put KC in the “shitty” grouping since they gave up 20pts to the Texans and were ranked 20^th in the league last year defensively. So, since the average score of the Bears versus the "shitty" teams was 34-14, I'm gonna go with the Bears, and I fully expect the defense to step up since it will be the Bears' first home game.

Why This WILL Lose: I think this section is probably important since there are two sides to every story. This side involves Rex Grossman being a train wreck. I left out two games from the shitty/good groupings, the Arizona game and week 17 versus Green Bay. In the Green Bay game, Grossman went 2/12, 33 yards, 3 INTs, 0 TDs. However, we’re going to throw this out entirely since the Bears’ had already clinched home field and it was New Year’s Eve, and we only know all Grossman really cares about is drinking and fucking. So, that’s out. What is really scary is that Arizona game. In which, he went 14/37, 144, 4 INTs, 0 TDs. He completely exploded, there was not excuse for this, since it was on Monday night, it was a big game. So, against KC, there is a chance he completely explodes (he is, after all, a mental midget) and is just awful this entire year. I’m not ruling that out, but this is a bounce back situation for the Bears, their first home game, and they have a horrible team coming into town. I'm gonna guess the final score will be somewhere around 31-0.

Chicago -12 v.

Kansas City

Buzzsaw

Chicago -12 v Kansas City
Buffalo +10 v Pittsburgh

Guy

Green Bay +1 v NY Giants
St. Louis -3 v San Francisco

Big Lots

Baltimore -10 v NY Jets
Green Bay +1 v NY Giants

Sammich

Dallas -3.5 at Miami
Cincy -7 at Cleveland

Weekend Betting Preview: NCAA Edition

This week we’re looking at the “Battle for the Bluegrass,” as Louisville and Kentucky meet to decide the winner of the Governor’s Cup. Louisville and Kentucky have one of the fiercest rivalries in college sports, most of the credit for that is due to the basketball teams, but these schools hate each other in general. This is going to seem like a very “square” pick, and I guess it is, but I don’t care Louisville is going to kick the shit out of Kentucky.

I’m not going to bother talking about the teams' defenses, neither is good, and if they were, it probably wouldn’t matter too much. This game comes down to the fact that Louisville has the extreme edge in talent, is equally motivated (even on the road), and Louisville is in a bounce back scenario.

Despite Kentucky’s emergence as an offensive power recently, Louisville’s talent is still miles beyond that of UK. I don’t care that Kentucky’s WR Keenan Burton was 1^st team all SEC last year, if Mario Urrutia and Harry Douglas were playing for UK, they’d be starting. At quarterback, Andre’ Woodson has been awesome, 2^nd team all SEC last year, but he just does not stack up to Brian Brohm, potential #1 NFL draft pick. The offensive lines might be the biggest difference, UK lost three of their starters from last year, 2^nd team all SEC Rt Michael Aitcheson (a 2 year starter), C Matt McCutchan (3-yr starter), and G Trai Williams (2-yr starter). This isn’t a completely dire situation as UK had multiple O-line injuries last year and played a lot of people, but it’s definitely not a strength. On the other hand, Louisville returns seven of their top 10 lineman and adds two JUCO transfers, it’s their strongest group in a long time.

I really believe that the Middle Tennessee game was a look ahead for Louisville. Even though Kentucky isn’t the most difficult opposition they face this year, it is their most hated. Louisville hasn’t shown anything, especially on defense. They have not used any of their blitz packages, etc. They are not as bad as they looked against MTSU, looking at the final score does not tell the whole story as MTSU only scored 7 of their 42 points in the second half. That shows that this team has talent, but needs to be motivated, and motivated they are.

If the rivalry wasn’t enough to get the defense excited for the game, Kentucky has provided some bulletin, or should I say billboard, material for the Cardinals (good one). The University of Kentucky has posted 17 UK Football billboards around the Louisville campus. That’s a lot, and the Louisville players have definitely noticed. Defensive tackle, Earl Heyman, had this to say: "Doesn't bother me, they can stick their signs wherever they want to stick them." I think he means "up their ass,"he went on about the rivalry, "The rivalry means a great deal to me personally and as a player, I'm from Louisville, and I've been around it my whole life. I've been all over Kentucky, and it's all everybody talks about." This defense will be ready to play, I think both defenses will be, but UL’s talent will prove too much.

I thought I should mention the home field advantage thing too, it hasn’t mattered in this series. Over the last eight years, Louisville has won by an average of 15 pts at home and won by an average of 19 pts at Kentucky. I’m not arguing that it’s better that Louisville is playing away, just that it doesn’t matter in this rivalry. So, in summary, Louisville is going to be looking to destroy someone coming off that embarrassingly close win versus MTSU, their first chance happens to be against their most hated rival, they have more talent, Kentucky has given them extra motivation, and the line is under a touchdown … count me in.

Louisville -6.5 @ Kentucky

Buzzsaw

Louisville -6.5 @ Kentucky

Ohio State -4 @ Washington

Miami (OH) +8.5 v. Cincinnati

Guy

Michigan -7.5 v. Notre Dame

Oregon -16 v. Fresno State

Arkansas/Alabama Under 47

Big Lots

Indiana -13.5 v Akron

Georgia Tech -6.5 v Boston College

Louisville/Kentucky Over 77

Sammich

Georgia Tech -6.5 v Boston College

USC -9.5 @ Nebraska

Duke/Northwestern Under 51.5

Contest Update

After an exciting weekend of gambling, it's time to update the contest standings. I expect everyone to have already read our picks but if you're new to the blog, here they are. If anyone out there decided to just bet my picks then I'll go ahead and say you're welcome for this week but I would advise against doing it in the future. Although I love gambling, I suck at it.

The Contest

BigLots 9-1
Sammich 5-5
Guy 5-5
Buzzsaw 2-7-1


Worst Pick of the Week: It probably should be my ill-advised Louisville bet but since that's my only loss I refuse to take the worst pick. Instead I'll go with Buzzsaw's selection of Miami to cover +10.5 against Oklahoma. The final score ended up being 51-13 in Oklahoma's favor.

Beat of the Week: Buzzsaw again gets this honor with his Texas-TCU over. The line was 44.5 and the score going into the fourth quarter was 10-10. However, 27 fourth quarter points later and he lost by 2.5 points.

Weekend Betting Preview: NFL Edition

Alright, as you may have already guessed, we’ll be doing the same betting previews for the NFL as we are for the NCAA. Loser at the end of the year does an anal bong … let’s bully.

I’ll be taking the Rams +1 over the Panthers as my first pick in this series, let’s hope this goes better than my first NCAA pick. The Carolina defense is the key to this bet for me. They are not the same unit as they have been over the last few years. Their defensive line and linebackers are all back, with Dan Morgan and Mike Rucker’s return, but they are old. Mike Rucker is coming back from an ACL surgery which will surely affect him this season. Odds are that Dan Morgan will leave with a concussion in this game, opening up a spot for rookie Jon “Big Bease” Beason (skeet skeet). The real advantage for the Rams comes thanks to the Panther secondary. Their CBs are only average, and they have to replace both safeties. The biggest loss is of Mike Minter, the Panther career leader in tackles. The replacements at safety are Chris Harris and Deke Cooper. Harris had a few starts for the Bears the last couple seasons, but he was not Chicago’s first option. Cooper is 30 years old, and only played in one game last year (from ND, woo woo). Actually, he played for more teams in 2006 than he did games. Torry Holt, Ike Bruce, Drew Bennett, Randy McMichael, etc, will kill these guys.

Delhomme is coming off of his worst season ever, he threw 17 TDs to 11 INTs, which aren’t bad numbers, but are bad for a game managing type quarterback. He only threw for 2805 yards, or only 55 yards more than Brad Johnson … depending on how you judge shitty quarterback play. The fact that the Panthers brought David Carr in will only complicates matters since Delhomme will be looking over his shoulder all season. He has possibly the top WR in the NFL, but still sucks. It goes without saying that Steve Smith will shit on anyone, but they have no other real receiving threats, Drew Carter is their number two and Jeff King (I have no clue who that is) at tight end … that’s a joke.

Carolina’s running back situation is definitely better than their passing. They’ve got DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams splitting carries; I don’t know why they don’t just break Foster’s leg now to save everyone the trouble but when that happens, DeAngelo will be great. However, the football prospectus guys ranked Carolina as only the 24^th best O-Line in run blocking (as compared to 6^th for STL), so it could be a tough season for either back.

I think everyone loves the Rams offense. I’m not the biggest fan of Mark Bulger, but I absolutely love Torry Holt and Steven Jackson. No one is more consistent than those two guys. This offense, ranked sixth in the league last year, might have improved with the additions of Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael. Basically, you know what you’re getting from the Rams, a great offense and a suspect defense. One change I do like with the defense is their draft pick, Adam Carriker, who, from all accounts, has been a stud throughout the preseason. In conclusion, I like this machine of an offense indoors against a methodical offense and a defense with a suspect secondary.

St. Louis -1 over Carolina

The Rest:

Buzzsaw:
St. Louis +1 v Carolina
Washington -3 v Miami (FL)

Biglots:
Cowboys -6 v New York
Houston -3 v Kansas City

Guy:
Cleveland +4.5 v Pittsburgh
Denver -3 @ Buffalo

Sammich:

Denver -3 @ Buffalo
St. Louis -1 v Carolina

Weekend Betting Preview: College Football Edition

Alright, last week didn’t work out so well, but the first week is a crapshoot. The second week is also pretty much a crapshoot, but I’m feeling pretty good about this play based on the results from last week as well as last year.

The game is Navy versus Rutgers on Friday night in New Jersey. These teams met last year when Rutgers shutout Navy, 34-0. Rutgers’ offense is even better than last year. They return seven starters from the team that averaged 30 ppg, including returning Heisman hopeful, Ray Rice. The line in front of Rice is also very experienced, they lost two starters, but gained Anthony Davis, the #7 ranked offensive lineman in the nation out of high school, Rutgers’ most highly touted recruit ever.

Last year, despite leading a high scoring offense, QB Mike Teel was a liability. There is no excuse for throwing 13 INTs to only 12 TDs when you have one of the best running backs in the country in your backfield. However, Teel is now a junior and should do a better job managing the game. You can’t take much from their game versus Buffalo, but Teel was awesome throwing for 328 yards and 2 TDs, most of which to (Heisman front runner) Tiquan Underwood. Though Navy’s defense is a little bit better than Buffalo’s, I expect Rutgers to carry the offensive momentum from that game with them into this contest with Navy.

Navy’s defense is absolutely awful. They return only 3 starters from a unit that gave up 20 ppg, that number isn’t bad, but is way worse when you realize that they were playing teams like Massachusetts, Temple, Tulsa, etc. Not to mention the fact that Rutgers scored 34 on them. They allowed Temple to score 19 pts last week, so, when you multiply that by how many times better Rutgers offense is than Temple … let me think … OK, Rutgers should score 200 pts.

In contrast to their defense, Navy’s offense returns seven starters, including four of their top five rushers, which is huge in an option offense. You may have stopped reading because Navy got shutout in this same spot last year, and you’d be justified, I was cautious about even playing before I looked deeper. I realized that Navy’s starting QB was injured on the second series of the game last year. 'Playing' in an option offense in high school, I know how important repetitions are for the offense’s success. The offense clearly had no rhythm the entire game, and it showed in the score. Navy only rushed for 113 yards in that game, over 200 yards less than their average of 350 rushing ypg. I was shocked to see they got shutout last year when I was looking into this game, but there is no way that will happen again, barring injury, the option attack is too difficult to stop. I actually think this veteran Navy offense has an outside chance of shocking everyone and winning this game SU, but I’m not gonna go crazy.

The Rutgers defense is actually pretty decent. Their strength is in their defensive line, which actually doesn’t concern me since the option offense forces linebackers and safeties to make stops. Most plays option off of a defensive lineman that is left free, so, they run the plays based on which choice that lineman makes … thus neutralizing them. Rutgers’ weakness is in their linebacking corps. They lost Devraun Thompson and Quintero Frierson, two of their top three tacklers, inexperience at linebacker will kill them against the option. Soooo, I’m taking (this is an awful number, you can get it at 48, but we use wagerline.com to keep the numbers consistent for the contest):

Rutgers/Navy Over 49.5

The Rest of the Plays:

Buzzsaw (1-4)

Rutgers/Navy Over 49.5
TCU/Texas Under 44.5
Miami (FL) +10.5 @ Oklahoma

Biglots (5-0)

Louisville -39.5 v Middle Tennessee State
UCLA -7 v BYU
Alabama -3.5 @ Vandy

Guy (3-2)

Oregon +8.5 @ Michigan
Washington +3 v. Boise St.
Auburn -6.5 v. South Florida

Sammich (2-3)

UCLA -7 v BYU
Florida -25.5 v Troy
Indiana +1 @ Western Michigan

The Contest Update

As our faithful readers already know, we will be having an ongoing competition during the year in which all the contributors minus Logan will attempt to succesffuly predict college football and NFL games. One thing you have to remember is that we are picking against the spread, not straight up winners. For those of you who don't gamble, this is pretty difficult and anyone who comes out above .500 has done pretty well. Forget successfully predicting all five games. That's pretty much impossible. You would have to be a complete badass to do something like that, so don't expect it.

I was planning on doing a "Beat of the Week" in which I pointed out who suffered the worst loss but no one really had any unlucky losses. Therefore, I'll use this space to point out how bad Buzzsaw's "Game of the Week" was. He told us to take the over in The Miami-Ball St. game and the line was set at 53. The final score was 14-13. Needless to say, I won't be following his lead this week.

Anyways, let's take a look at the standings after week one.

The Contest

	W	L
BigLots	5	0
Guy	3	2
Sammich	2	3
Buzzsaw	1	4

To sum it up, I'm pretty awesome.

College Football Weekend Sports Betting Preview

Happy college football season everyone. Today is one of the happiest days of the sports year and, to celebrate, this occasion we are kicking off our sports gambling extravaganza. Now, to preface the following articles, we must note that sports betting is illegal for most of you, we’re against all things that are illegal, so don’t do it. But for those of you who live within the Nevada state limits or on an Indian reservation, like myself, we hope to impart information that will further your spiral into gambling addiction. Winning breeds happiness, happiness breeds addiction, addiction breeds failure, failure breeds desperation, desperation breeds prostitution, prostitution breeds STDs; so we apologize in advance for the herpes you are sure to incur from these columns.

Every Thursday, I will be posting by college football game of the week, plus an unbelievably informative write-up on said game. The games of the week reflect my opinions, not those of the rest of the group. At the bottom of each column we will each post our top five bets of the week. We will keep track of our records as the week’s progress and at the end of the year, the three losers will have to do an anal bong, Log’s Blog’s customary punishment for losers. The same will happen for the NFL column on Fridays. Enough. Let’s get down to it.

GAME OF THE WEEK

This will be a special GOW as I will be choosing the first game of the NCAA season, Miami (OH) @ Ball State. It’s a little high, but I’ll be taking the Over 53. Ball St is the key team here. They will be dedicating their newly renovated stadium, in which they installed field turf which only helps this bet. They have an extremely potent offense and a shitty defense.

On offense, Ball St. returns QB Nate Davis, now a sophomore. Last year in the preseason, Davis beat out returning senior starter Joey Lynch who, in the previous year, had just thrown for the third-most yards in school history. That record was less a product of Lynch’s skill than a reflection of 5^th year coach, Brady Hoke’s offensive scheme. You may remember random ass Ball State receiver Dante Ridgeway leading the nation in receptions and yards receiving in 2004, that wasn’t because Ridgeway was good either. Davis was the 35^th ranked QB in the nation last year, and he is legit. In his first six games last year he was #2 in the nation in yards per attempt at 10.2. He struggled the next three games but bounced back to throw 250 in BSU’s near upset at Michigan, he is now the proud owner of a “Leon Hall is my bitch” tattoo. He lead the MAC in passing efficiency, even beating out everyone’s favorite MAC freshman, Dan LeFevour. Overall, the offense is explosive, they look to go deep. They also have a great returning offensive line. They return 4/5 starters from last year and also two lineman that combined to start in 10 games last year. They’ve got one of the best TE’s in the MAC (Darius Hill: 42 rec, 741 yds, 10 TD) and are returning two of their top three receivers. Let’s move on, there’s no way anyone is still reading this.

Miami’s offense looks to be good this year as well. They return their QB, Mike Kokal, who was second in the MAC last year in total offense on a team that went 2-10. They lost their best receiver but return nine of their top ten lineman from last year, that's insane. I’m not as excited about them as I am Ball State (they get me really pumped) but they throw the ball all day long. For example, they return their leading rusher from last year, Andre Bratton, who had 305 yards rushing, a leading rusher that low is actually impressive. In fact, neither team had a running back in the top ten of the MAC, a passing conference, last year. Therefore, there will be plenty of clock to work with for both teams.

I would preview the defense, but I’ll save my fingers, and you’re eyes, and just tell you that they suck. Especially Miami, they gave up somewhere near a million points last year and only returns six starters. Lastly, the other major reason I like this line is because of their game last year. People will look to this game and see the final score of 20-17, and think this is an easy under with each team returning the same starters and rain not being a factor. HOWEVA, they played in 30-45 MPH winds which took away each team’s passing attack and they still scored 37pts. Now, the offenses are better, the winds won’t be insane, and each team is at full strength; these factors should add up to a relatively easy over fucking disaster.

Ball St./Miami (OH) Over 53 annnddd BOOM GOES THE DYNAMITE

The rest of the picks:

Buzzsaw

Ball St/Miami Over 53

ILL/Missou Over 55.5

UVA -3.5 @ WYU

ARI +4.5 @ BYU

ISU -3 v Kent St

Guy

ND -2 v GT

Wisc -14 v WSU

Illinois +4.5 v Missou

Akron -5 v Army

Cal -6 v Tenn

BigLots

Navy/Temple Under 51

BYU -4.5 v Ari

WVU -23 v WMU

Purdue -6.5 @ Toledo

Cal -6 v Tenn

Sammich

FIU +38.5 @ PSU

BC -6.5 v Wake

Auburn -13.5 v KSU

Cal -6 v Tenn

Minn -14 v BGSU